Tigers collapse, Guardians hot streak paves the way for biggest series of the season
Photo Credit: Robin Buckson/The Detroit News
In July, the last week of the season was looking like a wash for the Cleveland Guardians and a cake walk for the Detroit Tigers. Fast forward to Tuesday, and that outlook has completely changed.
It’s Jul. 4, and the Tigers sat comfortably in first place in the American League Central ahead of a weekend series against their division rivals in Cleveland. The Tigers were the only team in the AL Central with a winning record (54-34), while the Guardians and Minnesota Twins both sat 12.5 games back of first place, with the Kansas City Royals not far behind. A series win by the Tigers would be viewed as a knockout punch for the Guardians’ division title hopes.
The Tigers celebrated America’s birthday with a 2-1 win before taking the final two games of the series by a combined score of 8-2. The Tigers extended their lead to 15.5 games ahead of the Guardians and had the best record in Major League Baseball.
After a fire sale at the trade deadline in late July, the Twins fell out of the playoff race, with the Guardians and Royals barely hanging on. A strong start to August by the Guardians and mediocre play from the Tigers saw the former climb to just six and a half games out of first place in the division. However, the Guardians would lose nine of their next 10 to set them back 12.5 games.
According to FanGraphs, the Guardians were given a zero percent chance of winning the division and a minuscule three percent chance of making the playoffs in a tight AL Wild Card race.
Since losing nine out of 10, the Guardians have gone 20-6, including a 10-game winning streak and a three-game sweep of the Tigers in Detroit. On the other hand, their division counterparts are 8-18 in their last 26, including being swept by the Athletics and Atlanta Braves during that stretch.
Despite trading away former ace and Cy Young winner Shane Bieber to the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline and losing three-time All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase due to an ongoing sports betting investigation, pitching has been key to the team’s recent success. Their 3.26 team earned run average is the best in baseball since Aug. 1. The Guardians’ bullpen has a 2.64 ERA over the last 26 games.
While pitching has been the bright spot down the stretch for the Guardians, the same can’t be said for the Tigers. Since Aug.1, the Tigers have a team ERA of 4.51, the 22nd-worst mark in the league. Their rotation boasts one of the league’s best pitchers, 2024 AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. The lefty ace is 13-6 with a 2.23 ERA, the best in the AL. After Skubal, the Tigers’ rotation leaves a lot to be desired. Jack Flaherty, the team’s biggest addition in free agency (two years, $35 million), has won just three of his last 17 starts and has an ERA of 5.59 over that span. To make matters worse, the most experienced starter the Tigers added at the deadline, 41-year-old Charlie Morton, was just released on Sunday after an incredibly disappointing tenure with the Tigers. Morton, who was acquired from the Baltimore Orioles, had a 7.09 ERA in nine starts for the Tigers, who lost their last five games with the veteran righty on the hill.
Remember when the Guardians were 15.5 games back of the Tigers for first place in the AL Central? Well, the teams are now separated by one game in the race for the AL Central crown, with the Tigers hanging on to first place by a thread. What once was thought to be a throwaway series at the end of the season is now one of the most intriguing matchups of the year.
The Tigers will head into the three-game series in Cleveland with a one-game lead, but the Guardians enter the series with all the momentum in front of their home fans. If the Tigers sweep the series, they will clinch the division. A sweep would see the Tigers move four games ahead of the Guardians, with each team having three games left. Anything less than a sweep would give the Guardians the head-to-head matchup tiebreaker over the Tigers. If the two were to end up tied atop the division after Game 162, it would be the Guardians winning the division due to the tiebreaker.
A Guardians series win would mean a tie for first place in the division, but would allow the Guardians to control their own destiny. A Guardians sweep would give them a two-game lead with three games to play, meaning they would only have to win one of their final three to be division champions.
The Tigers will send Skubal to the mound to start the first game of the series. His last start came against the Guardians in Detroit, where he allowed one earned run and received a no-decision. Over the last 28 days, opponents are hitting just .200 off Skubal, who has a 1.93 ERA during that span. Despite playing poor baseball recently, the Tigers will open the series with confidence with their ace on the mound.
The Tigers will wrap up their season in Boston against a team also fighting for a playoff spot. The Red Sox have a one-game advantage in the AL Wild Card race over the Guardians and Houston Astros. The Guardians will stay in Cleveland to host the Texas Rangers, who are mathematically still alive, but are five games out of the final playoff spot in the AL.
No matter who wins the AL Central, if the Tigers hang on or the Guardians complete a miraculous comeback, both teams could still make the playoffs, one as a division winner and the other as a wild card team. However, one of the Tigers, Guardians, Red Sox, Astros or Seattle Mariners will miss the playoffs, despite all teams currently 10 or more games over .500.
