The EFL Championship is set for a chaotic final day of the season
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Nothing beats the chaos of promotion and relegation on the season’s final day, especially in the tightly contested English Football League Championship. Every year, the league just below the English Premier League provides theatrics at the end of its 46-game campaign. The finish to this season is like nothing we’ve ever seen, with five teams fighting for the final two promotion playoff spots and five teams fighting to avoid the final relegation position.
Expect plenty of twists and turns on Saturday, May 3. Let’s look at where the promotion and relegation battles stand:
Automatic Promotion
Leeds United (1st place, 97 points, +64 goal differential)
The top two teams in the Championship this season have been the best by a mile. Leeds United have floated around the automatic promotion zone for the entire season. Leeds clinched their promotion to the Premier League with two games left, thanks to a win over Stoke City and Sheffield United’s loss to Burnley. Leeds came so close to reaching the Premier League last season before falling to Southampton in the Championship Play-off Final. This year, they earned automatic promotion and currently sit in first place on goal differential. With a win on Saturday at second-to-bottom Plymouth Argyle, Leeds will secure the Championship title and a hefty cash prize.
Burnley (2nd place, 97 points, +51 goal differential)
One year after being relegated from the Premier League, Burnley has earned promotion back to England’s top flight. It has been a rollercoaster past few seasons for Burnley. They were staples in the Premier League for six straight seasons before being relegated following the 2021-22 campaign. After one season in the Championship, they were promoted again but relegated after just one season. Now they find themselves back in the Premier League, where they will be looking to become a mainstay again. All that is left for them is a home match against Millwall. With a win and a Leeds draw or loss, Burnley would be crowned champions.
Promotion Playoffs
Sheffield United (3rd place, 89 points, +27 goal differential)
Another team that was relegated from the Premier League last season, Sheffield United, will have to earn its place back in the top flight through the Championship’s promotion playoffs. Sheffield United had their chance to secure automatic promotion but struggled down the stretch. Having clinched third place, Sheffield United will square off against the team that finishes sixth and earns the final playoff spot. The winner of each two-legged series plays each other at Wembley Stadium in the Championship Play-off Final for the right to earn the final Premier League promotion spot. Sheffield United will have one eye on the playoffs and the other on this weekend’s home match against Blackburn.
Sunderland (4th place, 76 points, +15 goal differential)
One of the more historic teams in English football history will look to return to the Premier League for the first time since 2016-17. For a while, it looked like Sunderland was cruising to automatic promotion, but the young team struggled to keep its pace in a tight league table, winning just four of their last 13 matches. Sunderland have clinched fourth place, so they will face whichever team finishes the season in fifth place in the other playoff series. Sunderland hosts Queens Park Rangers on Saturday, looking to end a four-game skid.
Bristol City (5th place, 67 points, +4 goal differential)
With just three losses since the middle of February, Bristol City has climbed its way back into promotion contention. Big wins over other promotion contenders, Middlesbrough, Millwall, Sunderland, and West Brom, made this strong run of form possible. Bristol City controls its own destiny on the final day. With a home win against 20th-place Preston North End, Bristol City will finish fifth in the Championship and keep its season alive for at least two more games. However, a draw or a loss could lead to disaster for Bristol City, with four teams still in contention behind them. Bristol City has never competed in the Premier League.
Coventry City (6th place, 66 points, +4 goal differential)
Former Premier League legend Frank Lampard is looking to take Coventry City to England’s top flight for the first time since 2000-01. The English manager took over after long-time manager Mark Robbins was sacked in November, following two wins in the team’s first eight games of the season. Lampard and his team steadily climbed the Championship table this season and find themselves holding the final promotion playoff spot only by goal differential. A four-game win streak in January and a five-game win streak in February have also allowed Coventry to control its own destiny on Saturday. With a win against Middlesbrough, and as long as Millwall doesn’t better Coventry’s result by four or more goals, they will earn one of the final two playoff spots.
Millwall (7th place, 66 points, 0 goal differential)
Millwall has quietly put itself in a position to threaten for promotion on the final day of the season. With five wins in its last six games, Millwall is now tied on points with Coventry City for the final promotion playoff position, only behind by four on goal differential. Out of all the teams fighting for the final two promotion qualification spots, Millwall has the hardest final match. They travel to Burnley, who have a chance to be champions of the Championship with a positive result and a Leeds draw or loss. Millwall is another team that has not played in the Premier League.
Blackburn (8th place, 65 points, +5 goal differential)
Blackburn looked down and out after a five-game losing streak that started in March and ended in early April, however, they are on a four-game winning streak heading into the final day of the season. A 4-1 win over promotion challengers Millwall allowed this chaos to continue into the final weeks. Blackburn travels to Sheffield United, who, luckily for Blackburn, don’t have much to play for. With Sheffield United already locked into third place, they could be focusing more on the playoffs than the last game of the season. Blackburn will need results around them to go in its favor. If Coventry and Millwall lose and Blackburn wins, they would earn a playoff spot due to a better goal differential. If Bristol City draws its match and Blackburn wins, they will be tied on points, but the latter would be ahead on goal differential. At minimum, Blackburn must pick up a point to have any chance of keeping its season alive.
Middlesbrough (9th place, 64 points, +10 goal differential)
The final team with a fighting chance at one of the last two playoff qualification spots, Middlesbrough was a mainstay in England’s first division during the league’s early years, but has played just one Premier League season (2016-17) since being relegated in 2008-09. Middlesbrough has the toughest task of any team fighting for a playoff promotion spot, with four teams still alive in front of them. They do have an advantage over those four teams, with the best goal differential (+10). Middlesbrough travels to Coventry City for a battle between two of the four remaining teams. Even if Middlesbrough wins, they will have to rely on Millwall and Blackburn dropping points and Bristol City losing, but the odds aren’t zero.
Relegation
Cardiff City (24th place, 44 points, -23 goal differential)
For the first time in 22 years, Cardiff City will be playing third-tier football in England, following the Welsh side’s 0-0 draw against West Brom last Saturday. Cardiff City won just four of its last 22 league games, with just one win since February. They lost crucial games down the stretch against relegation contenders Luton Town and Stoke City that ultimately sealed their fate. With one Welsh side exiting the Championship, another joins, with Wrexham earning automatic promotion from League One.
Plymouth Argyle (23rd place, 46 points, -36 goal differential)
While not officially relegated, Plymouth Argyle’s fate has been all but sealed. To survive, Plymouth would need to beat Leeds by double-digit goals, and Luton would need to lose to West Brom. Plymouth has been a much better team since sacking manager Wayne Rooney just before the turn of the new year. They’ve lost one more game than they’ve won since the managerial change, even shocking Premier League winners Liverpool in the FA Cup. The strong second half of the season won’t be enough to make up for a horrid first half of the year. Barring a miracle, Plymouth will head back to League One after two seasons in the Championship.
Hull City (22nd place, 48 points, -10 goal differential)
Hull City holds the final relegation place heading into the final day of the season. This comes as a surprise to many English football fans after Hull only finished three points out of the promotion playoffs last season. Hull decided to move on from its manager, Liam Rosenior, after failing to earn promotion last year. The decision backfired, as Rosenior’s Strasbourg team is fighting for a Champions League place in France’s Ligue 1 while Hull is on the brink of relegation. Hull travels to Portsmouth on Saturday, needing a positive result to have a chance at survival. If Hull draws and Luton loses, the former would be safe due to better goal differential. Hull would be in a much better situation if they were to win. They would jump the four teams ahead of them, with the chance that all four also winning is low.
Luton Town (21st place, 49 points, -22 goal differential)
One year removed from being relegated from the Premier League, Luton Town is in danger of being sent down in back-to-back seasons. Since March 1st, Luton has lost two of its last 11 games and is currently on a three-game win streak. They hold the final non-relegation spot in the Championship and will clinch safety with a win at West Brom. A loss and a Hull win or draw would see Luton head to League One.
Preston North End (20th place, 49 points, -11 goal differential)
Above Luton is Preston North End, but only by goal differential. Opposite Luton, Preston has won just two games since March 1st and is on a four-game losing streak heading into the final weekend. Luckily for Preston, a win at Bristol City confirms they will play in the Championship next season. However, as we talked about above, Bristol City is playing to earn one of the final two promotion playoff spots, making the task much harder for Preston. Preston also only has 10 wins, the fewest of the teams in the relegation battle. If Hull City and Luton both draw their games, Preston would be relegated by one goal in the goal differential tiebreaker. A Preston draw and a Derby County loss would also guarantee safety for Preston.
Derby County (19th place, 49 points, -8 goal differential)
Derby County is the third team tied on 49 points, but only ahead of Hull and Luton on goal difference. Derby has been in and around the relegation zone for the entire season. A four-game win streak in March and a current two-game win streak have Derby on the verge of safety. Derby’s win over Hull last weekend may well have been the relegation-deciding game. Derby hosts Stoke City, the final team with a chance of being relegated. With both teams fighting for survival, this will be one of Saturday’s best matches. A win confirms safety for Derby, but a draw would also do the trick if Hull fails to win. A loss to Stoke would put Derby in a precarious position, having to rely on Preston, Luton, and Hull dropping points.
Stoke City (18th place, 50 points, -17 goal differential)
The final team trying to avoid relegation to League One is Stoke City. Once a staple in the Premier League, Stoke has been a mid-to-bottom-of-the-table team in the Championship since being relegated from the first division in 2017-18. Stoke lost by a combined 8-0 in its last two games, but was unbeaten in its previous five. With 12 wins on the season, Stoke has only won four times on the road, with a huge away match against Derby on the horizon. A lot of things have to go wrong for Stoke to get relegated. Just like Derby, a win or a draw and Hull loss would be enough to keep Stoke in the Championship.
