Part Deux: Oilers and Panthers set for Stanley Cup Finals rematch

Photo Credit: Perry Nelson/USA Today Sports

Are you having déjà vu?

For the second consecutive season, the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers will meet in the Stanley Cup Finals. This is the 12th Cup Final rematch in National Hockey League history and the first since 2008-09.

Last year, the Panthers won their first Stanley Cup in franchise history after a thrilling seven-game series win over the Oilers. The Panthers won the first three games, two in Florida and one in Edmonton, taking complete control of the series. In the first three games, the Panthers outscored the Oilers 11-4. The Oilers stormed back to take the next three games by an aggregate score of 18-5, thanks to dominant performances from stars Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid.

However, the Oilers’ comeback fell agonizingly short in Game 7. The Panthers got goals from Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Reinhart in the first two periods, and secured the 2-1 win in the third period thanks to outstanding play from goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky. Even in a losing effort, McDavid was awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy for most valuable player in the playoffs. McDavid’s 42 points were the third-highest total by any player in a single postseason, and his 34 assists are the most by any player in a single playoff run. He was the first Conn Smythe winner from a losing team since 1976 when Philadelphia Flyers forward Reggie Leach took home the award.

Fast forward to this season, the Panthers and Oilers boast similar rosters to the ones we saw in last year’s Cup Final. The Panthers added a little more firepower to their lineup with in-season trades for former All-Star defenseman Seth Jones and four-time All-Star and Stanley Cup champion Brad Marchand. The latter has been an integral piece to this year’s run, with 14 points in 17 games.

With already a lot of star power between Draisaitl and McDavid, the Oilers added depth pieces to their roster this year, with forwards Viktor Arvidsson and Trent Frederic, and defenseman Jake Walman. Once again, the latter has been the most important acquisition for the playoffs. Walman, 28, is playing in his first full postseason and leads the league with a plus/minus of +12 in the playoffs.

The Oilers find themselves relying heavily on Draisaitl and McDavid, just like they did last season. McDavid leads the league with 26 playoff points, with Draisaitl one point behind. Forward Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (18 points) and defenseman Evan Bouchard (17 points) have also been key contributors to the Oilers’ run to the Cup. Draisaitl and 40-year-old forward Corey Perry are tied for the team lead with seven goals. This is Perry’s fifth appearance in the last six Stanley Cup Finals, having lost all of them with the Dallas Stars (2020), Montreal Canadiens (2021), Tampa Bay Lightning (2022), and Oilers (2024). Perry did win a Cup 22 years ago with the Anaheim Ducks during his second season in the league. The Oilers will be without goal-scoring winger Zach Hyman, who suffered a season-ending upper-body injury in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. The former 54-goal scorer had 11 points in 15 playoff games.

The Oilers came into the playoffs, like they have done in recent years, with question marks around their goaltending. 26-year-old goaltender Stuart Skinner wasn’t great in the regular season, finishing the year with a 2.81 goals-against average and a .896 save percentage. Skinner lost the first two games of this year’s opening round and was replaced by backup Calvin Pickard, who led his team to a series win before getting hurt in the second round. Since Skinner lost his first three starts of the postseason, he is 6-1 with a 1.41 goals-against average, a .944 save percentage, and three shutouts.

The Panthers have been dominant in their run back to the Stanley Cup Finals. They are 8-2 in their last ten games, including a rout of the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 7 of the second round. 2025 Selke Trophy winner Aleksander Barkov leads the team in points with 17. Forwards Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk each have 16 points, with the former leading the playoffs in goals (10).

The Panthers are anchored by the two-time Vezina Trophy winner Bobrovsky. The 36-year-old is 12-5 in this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, boasting a 2.11 goals-against average, a .912 save percentage, and three shutouts. He is second among active goalies with 57 career playoff wins, only behind Andrei Vasilevskiy (67) of the Lightning. Bobrovsky led the league in saves during the last two postseasons, with 585 in 2022-23 and 528 in 2023-24.

The Panthers continued their success against the Oilers in the regular season, sweeping the season series, with a 6-5 home win in mid-December and a 4-3 road win in late February. Despite that success, there is one Oiler who always gets the best of the Panthers. McDavid averages 1.73 points per game against the Panthers, including regular season and playoffs. Per ESPN Research, that is the highest rate against the Panthers by any player in the franchise’s history with a minimum of 20 games played.

Another stat that bodes well for the Oilers, and McDavid, is that generational talents tend to win the Stanley Cup the second time around, especially in back-to-back scenarios. The last two occurrences of a repeat Stanley Cup Finals rematch were in 1983-84 and 2008-09. The Oilers lost to the New York Islanders in 1983 before beating them in the Cup Final in 1984, Gretzky’s first Cup. In 2008, the Detroit Red Wings beat the Pittsburgh Penguins, who then defeated the Red Wings in the 2009 Cup Final, the first of Sidney Crosby’s career. Could McDavid continue this pattern for star players?

This Stanley Cup Final will look a little different from last year’s, with the Oilers starting the series at home this time. The last six, and eight out of the last 10, winners of the Stanley Cup have had home ice advantage. The Oilers are 6-1 at home in this year’s postseason. The Panthers are 8-2 on the road and have won their last five away games, outscoring their opponents 27-7 over that span.

In 2023, the Panthers started the Stanley Cup Finals on the road against the Vegas Golden Knights, ultimately losing the series in five games and not winning on the road. They’ve likely learned a thing or two about that experience as they get set to play in their third consecutive Stanley Cup Final. The Panthers are just the second team in the last 40 years to appear in three straight Cup Finals. Their in-state rival, the Lightning, is the other team to accomplish that feat and is the last team to win back-to-back Cups (2020 and 2021). If the Panthers defeat the Oilers in this best-of-seven series, they will become the 10th team in league history to repeat as Stanley Cup champions.

The Oilers will be looking for their first Stanley Cup win since 1990 and will try to bring Lord Stanley back to Canada for the first time since 1993. The Oilers are one of four teams in NHL history to lose in the Stanley Cup Finals and then win a rematch with the same opponents the following year. Can they do it again?