‘The numbers don’t lie:’ Phillies land elite closer Jhoan Duran in trade with the Twins

Photo Credit: Philadelphia Phillies

“He’s one of the best in baseball. He’s in the game, it’s usually over.”

That’s what Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper said to reporters about his new teammate, closer Jhoan Duran.

The Phillies acquired the 27-year-old closer in a deal with the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday evening. The Phillies sent the Twins a prospect package of starting pitcher Mick Abel (No. 6 Phillies prospect/No. 92 MLB prospect) and catcher Eduardo Tait (No. 4 Phillies/No. 56 MLB).

Duran was one of, if not the best, relief pitchers available on the trade market. He has a 2.01 earned run average in 49.1 innings, with 16 saves and 53 strikeouts. Duran has two and a half years of team control left. He is eligible for arbitration in 2026 and 2027 and will become a free agent in 2028. He was making $4.13 million on his contract this season.

“We liked quite a few closers, quite a few relievers,” said Dave Dombrowski, Phillies President of Baseball Operations. “There weren’t very many available as time went on… we just thought he was the best guy out there. We felt this was a deal that we got a dominant closer for a tough price, two good players, but something that we think where we are makes sense.

“We would not have paid this price for a rental, so that’s what really is a difference for us, not only this year but two more years, two more seasons after this. If we were talking a pure rental we would not have traded these players for that.”

Duran averages a tick over 100 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball and also throws a nasty splitter, curveball, and sweeper. Not only is Duran known for his velocity, but he is also one of the best ground-ball relievers in the league and rarely allows home runs. Per FanGraphs, his ground ball percentage (65.4%) is second-best among qualified relievers, and his home runs per nine innings ratio (0.18) is tied for second-best among qualified relievers.

Duran has given up 11 earned runs and just one home run in 49 games played for the 51-57 Twins. Opponents have a .219 batting average against Duran this season, with right-handed batters hitting .258 and left-handed batters hitting .181. The 27-year-old has only allowed five extra-base hits this season, surprisingly giving up four of the five, including a home run, to left-handed hitters.

“Because he’s good enough,” Dombrowski said when asked why he paid the price he did for a closer. “He is legitimate. He is a legitimate closer. We talked about it beforehand that if we got him he’d be our guy. It does help that he can mix and match around, he gets lefties and righties out. In fact, righties don’t hit him, their OPS is not very good at all. The batting average for lefties is amazing how low it is overall so he gets lefties and righties out.”

The Phillies did give up two of their better prospects to get this deal done.

Tait, currently viewed as a catcher, was showing elite hitting tools in Single-A. The 19-year-old boasts immense power from the left side of the batter’s box. While his hitting tools are there and are projected to translate well to MLB, he is still raw as a catcher. Many scouting reports note that he needs years of development behind the plate to be considered a major league catcher. Tait has a .288 BA with 25 home runs and 166 runs batted in in three minor league seasons.

Abel, who made his major league debut with the Phillies earlier this year, gives the Twins a major league-ready starter. The 15th-overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft made six starts with the Phillies this season, finishing 2-2 with a 5.04 ERA. Abel was 7-2 with a 2.31 ERA in 74 Triple-A innings pitched this season. Many fans and scouts wrote Abel off after a horrid 2024 season in Triple-A. The 23-year-old posted an ERA over six and allowed 78 earned runs and 78 walks. Abel rebuilt his stock this season and showed flashes in the majors, including one of the best debuts in Phillies history. He had had nine strikeouts and no walks in six scoreless innings and earned the win over Pittsburgh Pirates pitching phenom Paul Skenes.

“Tait is a really good prospect,” Dombrowski said. “I think for us, the one difference is he is down the road a little bit, but he is a really good player. And Mick, we like a lot. We think he is ready to step into a big league rotation.”

Rumors swirled earlier in the day that the Phillies would have to include top pitching prospect Andrew Painter, the eighth-ranked MLB prospect, in any deal for Duran. Dombrowski, a two-time Baseball America Executive of the Year, was able to make the trade happen without adding Painter. Dombrowski was adamant in his media availability on Wednesday night that the Phillies would not and are not entertaining any trades involving their No. 1 prospect.

However, this was a move the Phillies had to make. The Phillies have the seventh-worst bullpen ERA (4.45) in the league. Their saves leader, 32-year-old Jordan Romano, has a 6.81 ERA and just eight saves. The Phillies suffered a major blow to their bullpen when high-leverage reliever Jose Alvarado was suspended 80 games for a positive performance-enhancing drug test in May. While the lefty is eligible to return from suspension in August, he is ineligible for the postseason.

The team did sign 40-year-old free-agent reliever David Robertson to a one-year deal on July 21st. In his third stint with the Phillies, Dombrowski and Co. hope that the former World Series Champion can regain form and become a stable piece in the team’s bullpen.

Under the leadership of manager Rob Thomson, the Phillies have rarely had a designated closer. They have gone the closer-by-committee route or have relied on veteran closers who have fallen way short of expectations, like Romano and Craig Kimbrel in 2023. They haven’t had an elite-level closer since Jonathan Papelbon from 2011 to 2015.

With the Phillies sitting a half game out of first place in the National League East, the team needed an elite bullpen arm for the stretch run and MLB playoffs.

Duran has just one year of playoff experience under his belt. He was excellent in five innings pitched, notching two saves and six strikeouts, while allowing only two hits, one walk, and no runs.

Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber has experience with his team adding an elite closer at the deadline and going on to have massive success in the playoffs.

“Whenever you make a splash for a high-caliber player, that means something,” said Kyle Schwarber. “Personally, I remember 2016 when [the Cubs] traded for Aroldis Chapman. It just kind of lifted the spirits of everyone. And I feel like that’s going to be the same thing.”

During his half-season with the Cubs in 2016, Chapman had an ERA just over one with 16 saves in 28 games. While Chapman wasn’t as strong in the playoffs, his addition helped the Cubs win the World Series. The Phillies will be hoping Duran can be their version of 2016 Chapman.

Since Duran was dealt to the Phillies, three more high-end closers have been traded over the last 24 hours. The New York Mets acquired St. Louis Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley, the San Diego Padres gave up a Top 5 prospect in baseball to acquire Athletics closer Mason Miller, and the New York Yankees traded for Pirates closer David Bednar.

At the time of publishing this story, the Phillies added versatile outfielder Harrison Bader in another trade with the Twins. The Phillies gave up their 12th-ranked prospect and a young international pitcher in the deal. Bader is having a strong offensive season, is a good defender, and adds a much-needed right-handed bat to the lineup. Dombrowski noted in his media availability on Wednesday that the team is likely done acquiring bullpen arms, but wouldn’t rule out anything if he were approached with an offer he couldn’t refuse before the trade deadline at 6 PM on Thursday, July 31.

“It obviously sends a message,” said reliever Matt Strahm. “But what this clubhouse has been through since `22, we don’t need a message. We know what we’ve got to do and whatever they give us or don’t, we’re gonna go do it.”