Top 5 landing spots for Mitch Marner in NHL free agency
Photo Credit: Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press
As soon as the Toronto Maple Leafs were eliminated from the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs on Sunday, attention shifted to impending unrestricted free agent Mitch Marner. The 28-year-old right winger has played nine seasons with the Maple Leafs since being drafted fourth overall in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. While Marner has worked well with star forwards Auston Matthews and William Nylander in the regular season, they’ve had little to no playoff success during their most competitive window. With another year gone by without advancing past the second round, it might be time for a shakeup in Toronto, with Marner projected to cash in elsewhere.
The two-time NHL All-Star recorded a career-high 102 points this season (27 goals and 75 assists), finishing with the fifth-highest point total in the league. This was Marner’s fourth season with 90 or more points and the first time eclipsing 70 or more assists. Marner was the second-leading point getter (13) for the Maple Leafs in this year’s postseason. While Marner improved from last season’s three total playoff points, the Maple Leafs fell flat and once again failed to get over the hump.
Because of Marner’s talent, pedigree, and age, he will be the most in-demand free agent to hit the market this offseason. Marner’s projected contract could be worth $13-16 million per season for seven or eight years. While there is a chance the Maple Leafs sign Marner before he hits the open market, many signs point to him at least testing free agency. With that in mind, let’s look at some of the best landing spots for the NHL’s top free agent.
*The teams are in no particular order
Chicago Blackhawks
Young phenom Connor Bedard struggled last season because of the lack of talent around him. Bedard has all the talent in the world to take control of games himself, but, like every star, he needs a strong cast around him. It wasn’t just Bedard who played poorly this season, it was the majority of the team. The Blackhawks finished the season second-to-last in the league standings and will be picking third overall in this year’s draft.
Along with Bedard, the Blackhawks have a crop of talented young prospects who have already made an impact at the NHL level or are ready to take the next step. Players like defensemen Kevin Korchinski, Artyom Levshunov, and Sam Rinzel, and forwards Oliver Moore and Frank Nazar give the organization a strong foundation. Adding a player of Marner’s caliber would only improve the growth and development of these players.
While the Blackhawks don’t struggle to sell tickets, Marner would bring more attention to a team that has been stuck in the league’s basement for way too long. If they are looking to move on from their rebuild and back into contention, this would be an obvious move. Pairing Marner with Bedard would give the Blackhawks two of the best playmakers in the league, and they should have enough to afford what the 28-year-old Canadian will be asking for. Having spent nine years in Toronto, one of the biggest hockey markets, will Marner be comfortable going to another big city with a lot of pressure?
Carolina Hurricanes
The Carolina Hurricanes are the only team on this list still in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Hurricanes are an interesting option because they have established stars on their roster and are consistently good. Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, and Andrei Svechnikov highlight a talented and deep pool of forwards.
So why are the Hurricanes on this list? Well, they attempted to trade for Marner during the season. After trading forward Martin Necas and other assets to the Colorado Avalanche for forward Mikko Rantanen, the Hurricanes believed they acquired one of the league’s top playmakers. When it became clear that Rantanen, an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, wasn’t going to re-sign in Carolina, they had to quickly look for another trade partner. They reportedly had a deal to send Rantanen to the Maple Leafs for Marner, but Marner used his no-movement clause to block the trade.
The Hurricanes don’t have a ton of cap space, but if they had planned to trade for Marner and extend him during the season, they likely have the means to sign him this offseason. However, did Marner veto the trade because he wanted to stay in Toronto or because he didn’t want to go to Carolina? Carolina would be a much smaller market for Marner, with a passionate fan base and winning hockey culture. How far the Hurricanes advance in this year’s postseason may determine if they need a player like Marner to win their first Stanley Cup since 2005-06.
Seattle Kraken
After making the playoffs in the franchise’s second season (2022-23), the Kraken have failed to sustain the success they had that year. They’ve finished sixth and seventh in the Pacific Division the last two seasons after finishing last in the division during their first year in the league. The Kraken hold the eighth pick in this year’s NHL draft following another disappointing season.
The Kraken have a good mix of young stars and savvy veterans, but no real game-changing players. They are somewhat in no man’s land, do they rebuild or do they try and compete? Signing recent Stanley Cup winners Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson showed the latter. However, the team’s performance last year, with a solid group of players, was nothing to write home about. If they decide to go for it, adding Marner would be a smart move. He would immediately become the best player on the team and would pair well with 2022-23 Calder Trophy Winner Matty Beniers, whose production has dipped since winning Rookie of the Year.
Cap space might be Seattle’s biggest issue. They have a lot of depth and role players locked into large contracts that won’t be easy to move on from, and they have a few important restricted free agents to re-sign. The seven-year, $43 million contract given to Stephenson and the seven-year, $50 million contract given to Montour may prohibit the Kraken from going after Marner’s services. The idea of adding Marner and how much he would elevate the team would give the front office an incentive to make enough room for him. The Kraken are also considering Maple Leafs’ assistant coach Lane Lambert for their head coaching vacancy, someone who is very familiar with Marner and could convince him to come to Seattle if he gets the job.
Utah Mammoth
Formerly the Utah Hockey Club, the Utah Mammoth brand will take center stage next season, the second year of NHL hockey in the Beehive State. What better way to ring in a new identity with a new star? Utah surprised a lot of fans with their performance this season, only missing out on the playoffs by seven points.
The Mammoth have an established forward in Clayton Keller, who had a career-best 90 points this past season. Adding Marner with Keller, and talented young players Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, and Barrett Hayton, would make for a dangerous top-six forward group in Utah. Many analysts around the league believe that the Mammoth are one piece away from competing, and without injuries to their defense in 2024-25, they would have made the playoffs.
The Mammoth have the cap space to sign Marner and could entice him with their young project, new arena renovations, and talented team. Playing in Utah would also take some of the pressure off Marner that he may have felt in Toronto. It is a smaller market and fan base, one that could allow Marner to thrive on and off the ice.
Toronto Maple Leafs
A return to the Maple Leafs is still in the cards for Marner, and it can even happen before he hits the open market. Unless he re-signs, Marner’s tenure with the team that drafted him ended on a sour note, with a lot of visible frustration after another year of playoff failure. Could it be time for a major change in Toronto? If so, the easiest option to move on from is Marner.
The Maple Leafs currently have four players on their roster with contracts over $10 million, but that number goes down to two with Marner and forward John Tavares on expiring contracts. Which player will the Maple Leafs decide to keep, if they keep either? There is an expectation that Tavares is willing to take a hometown discount to stay with his boyhood team, but even with that factored in and a rising cap, there might not be enough money to keep Marner and improve other areas of need.
However, Marner has been a lifelong Maple Leaf. His entire professional hockey career has been spent in Toronto. His dedication to the organization is likely one of the main reasons he decided to veto a potential trade to Carolina during the season. The Maple Leafs have a better chance of competing with Marner on their current roster. Unfortunately for Marner, if he wants to stay put, the decision might not be his. If President Brendan Shanahan and General Manager Brad Treliving choose to break up the “Core Four” of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares, Marner could be the odd man out because of his projected contract and cap hit.
